Official Fighters betting thread.

As nobody had I thought it would be good to get the ball rolling!
 
This thread could cover all betting tips and results and banter on the values being offered.
 
Polite notice. Please could nobody troll the thread with lame comments such as 'you were wrong and I right', or 'I would not trust' ETC ETC. Thanks!
 
First up,
http://news.boxrec.com/news/2011/lawton-vows-end-matthews%E2%80%99-career-calling-time-his-own
 
2 shot guys fighting for joke World title.
 
Lawton though is a 2/1 underdog on this one and IMO thats good value against a Derry Mathews who hes beat before. At 135 this time lawtons got the advanatges. Worth a punt IMO.
 

Bit of a weird fight this one. Supposed to be Lawtons last outing where as Matthews will be a hoping a win will lead to bigger things... Guess you can argue Lawton will be motivated to go out with a win but I don't like the fact he's had injuries that have affected his training camp.

Neither guy has a great chin, Lawton has lost 7 fights, 4 by T/KO and Matthews 5 losses have all been by way of T/KO. Lawton has actualy never gone 12 rounds in 35 professional bouts, Matthews has gone the full distance just twice in 30 fights.

Matthews looked the better fighter in Prizefighter, I thought the way he beat McArthur and Choi was impressive, I can even give him a pass for the loss to Buckland (Matthews came into the fight off the back of a really hard fight and was at a massive disadvantage to Buckland who had progressed with a first round KO). However, you have to wonder if/how he'll bounce back from what was another KO loss. Conversley Lawton looked poor and I thought Sykes might have taken him out.

With the above in mind I wouldn't want to take the outright price on either guy. Lawton has stopped Matthews before in a close fight so the 4/7 on Matthews looks a bit skinny despite the fact I think we may see a reversal of fortunes here. I think I'll probably play Matthews by KO/TKO/DQ as well as under 9.5 rounds or fight not to go the distance as history tells us fights involving these guys don't often go 12 rounds. Only one Book has a price up for the over's, 2 have a method of victory market so I'll hold off placing my bets in the hope of getting better value for money. Current prices are 11/5 Matthews T/KO and 11/10 under 9.5 rounds. On a scale of 1-10 I'd rate those props as a 4 so i'm not particulary confident here.

If an exact method of victory market is offered I would think Matthews by RTD would be worth some change as well.

Is this going to be stickied???

Just looking around at the odds on the soon to be Bradley V Alexander fight and Tim Bradley can be found at Evens for a points win.

As the fight gets closer I think the odds for a Bradley UD will be the cherry pick IMO.

Was Alexanders fight with Kotelnik just a bad day is the question over the value of that price.

Don't think that even money is value tbh mate, not sure i'll be having a bet on this one.

Theres a few fights which represent decent betting opportunities this weekend, I've included the ones I like below but if anyone fancies anything else stick it up and hopefuly we can a bit of a discussion going and find some winning bets.

Derry Matthews 1/2 v Scott Lawton 21/10 - http://www.oddschecker.co...-v-scott-lawton/winner
- Sticking with what I said above and will take the under 9.5 at 19/20 and Matthews by KO/TKO/DQ at 2/1.

Thierry Karl 4/6 v Danny McIntosh 17/10 - http://www.oddschecker.co...-danny-mcintosh/winner
- I think this is a 50/50 fight, I can only assume Karl is favorite because the fight is in France. However I don't see this fight going the distance so I'm not sure thats such a big advantage. Karl has looked better since his move to 175, he has decent power evidenced by a first round KO win over Cleverlys last opponent. McIntosh also has decent power having won 6 out of his last 7 fights inside the distance, losing the other one by 7th round TKO to Cleverly (survived 2 knockdowns in the 2nd IIRC).

The fact both guys hit relatively hard and aren't great defensively, added to the fact McIntosh will know he has to press the fight and go for the stoppage makes it hard to envisage this fight going over 9.5 rounds (sure most people know but that prop means under/over 1.30 of the 10th) Therefore I think that under 9.5 rounds is a good bet at 4/5. As I've said I think this a 50/50 fight, therefore McIntosh at 17/10 outright is value, however whilst thats a good price I've already said I don't think this fight goes the distance (even if it did you'd have to think Karl would get the decision) so I'd rather take 9/4 on McIntosh by KO/TKO/DQ.

The other fight that caught my eye was McDonnell 1/4 v Jamoye 7/2; I actualy think Jamoye has a decent chance and could be value at that price. Not too sure if I want to back that opinion up with cash though.

Thoughts...

cbris78


Theres a few fights which represent decent betting opportunities this weekend, I've included the ones I like below but if anyone fancies anything else stick it up and hopefuly we can a bit of a discussion going and find some winning bets.

Derry Matthews 1/2 v Scott Lawton 21/10 - http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/derry-matthews-v-scott-lawton/winner
- Sticking with what I said above and will take the under 9.5 at 19/20 and Matthews by KO/TKO/DQ at 2/1.

Thierry Karl 4/6 v Danny McIntosh 17/10 - http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/thierry-karl-v-danny-mcintosh/winner
- I think this is a 50/50 fight, I can only assume Karl is favorite because the fight is in France. However I don't see this fight going the distance so I'm not sure thats such a big advantage. Karl has looked better since his move to 175, he has decent power evidenced by a first round KO win over Cleverlys last opponent. McIntosh also has decent power having won 6 out of his last 7 fights inside the distance, losing the other one by 7th round TKO to Cleverly (survived 2 knockdowns in the 2nd IIRC).

The fact both guys hit relatively hard and aren't great defensively, added to the fact McIntosh will know he has to press the fight and go for the stoppage makes it hard to envisage this fight going over 9.5 rounds (sure most people know but that prop means under/over 1.30 of the 10th) Therefore I think that under 9.5 rounds is a good bet at 4/5. As I've said I think this a 50/50 fight, therefore McIntosh at 17/10 outright is value, however whilst thats a good price I've already said I don't think this fight goes the distance (even if it did you'd have to think Karl would get the decision) so I'd rather take 9/4 on McIntosh by KO/TKO/DQ.

The other fight that caught my eye was McDonnell 1/4 v Jamoye 7/2; I actualy think Jamoye has a decent chance and could be value at that price. Not too sure if I want to back that opinion up with cash though.

Thoughts...

The under 9.5 rounds does look tidy at that price. Would not like to pick the winner but 17/10 looks a strong price.

Saul Alvarez to stop Hatton inside 12 looks a decent punt at 10/11.

Trident


Just looking around at the odds on the soon to be Bradley V Alexander fight and Tim Bradley can be found at Evens for a points win.

As the fight gets closer I think the odds for a Bradley UD will be the cherry pick IMO.

Was Alexanders fight with Kotelnik just a bad day is the question over the value of that price.

Good bet, I'll be on that. Can see Bradley winning comfortably.

Well, Matthews knocked Lawton down in the 6th but couldn't force a stoppage, winning a wide UD 116-110, 118-109 and 118-110 so not a great start...

Thankfully McIntosh won by T/KO which gave a decent return at 9/4. Unfortunately as it was in the 11th round I still made a small loss on the evening as the under 9.5 didn't come in.

As pointed out Jamoye was probably good value too, just losing a majority decision by 1 and 2 points respectively after going favorate in the early rounds.

...................................................................................................................................

Bradley v Alexander next weekend, though I'm not sure if i'll be having a bet on that one. Value wise I quite like Alexander by KO at 9/1, maybe fight not to go the distance at 3/1, although my record on betting unders isn't great...!

EDIT - Prizefighter is next weekend also

Two bets that look interesting IMO in the Bradley v Alexander fight are Bradley by UD at 5/4 with Skybet who are also offering 18/1 on a Bradley win by retired opponent.

I think if i was going to bet on Bradley by decision I'd just take the 11/10 for any type of decision, by taking the UD you lose if it's a majority, split or technical decision. Bradley may well take a UD but the little extra isn't worth it imo.

I've gone for either fighter to win inside the distance at 11/4 - Sky Bet.

I think Alexander is more likely to get the stoppage if there is one so I have a bit on him to win by KO/TKO/DQ at 17/2, however as Bradley has shown he can survive a couple of kncokdowns i've also had a little on Bradley to be knocked down and win the fight which is 16/1.

This is me playing the odds and looking for value though, I haven't used large stakes here because as I've said Bradley is the % call, I'm just not happy betting a large sum of money on him at 4/7. 

Looking at some of the specials markets I think the following are worth a couple of quid, and I literally mean like £1 or £2 each as they're those odds for a reason.

Alexander to win by DQ or TD, both props are 80/1 - Bradley leads with his head and this should be a high pace fight
Bradley by TD, 50/1 - same reasons as above

Im not touching Bradley /Alexander could go either way.

cbris78


I think if i was going to bet on Bradley by decision I'd just take the 11/10 for any type of decision, by taking the UD you lose if it's a majority, split or technical decision. Bradley may well take a UD but the little extra isn't worth it imo.

I've gone for either fighter to win inside the distance at 11/4 - Sky Bet.

I think Alexander is more likely to get the stoppage if there is one so I have a bit on him to win by KO/TKO/DQ at 17/2, however as Bradley has shown he can survive a couple of kncokdowns i've also had a little on Bradley to be knocked down and win the fight which is 16/1.

This is me playing the odds and looking for value though, I haven't used large stakes here because as I've said Bradley is the % call, I'm just not happy betting a large sum of money on him at 4/7. 

Looking at some of the specials markets I think the following are worth a couple of quid, and I literally mean like £1 or £2 each as they're those odds for a reason.

Alexander to win by DQ or TD, both props are 80/1 - Bradley leads with his head and this should be a high pace fight
Bradley by TD, 50/1 - same reasons as above

We have a winner!
 
Nice result mate.

My heart sank this morning as soon as I saw this result. Was planning a few quid on TD based on cbris78 advice....then forgot!
 
Hope everyone else was on it. Wish I had a hot tub time machine.

Yep well done chris

Thanks guys, was a decent result, the 11/4 on either fighter inside the distance came in as well which was my main bet.

Not much action next weekend, just Booth v Arthur up so far, waiting to see the odds for Crolla v Johson the weekend after, but might not play again until the 19th/20th when I think theres a bunch of potential upsets

Alexander quit, really dissapointed me, he could have hung in there and tried for a KO, he does have knockout power.

To all the gamblers out there, UFC Feb 5th. Take Bones Jones all the way, he is 2 to 1 favorite but he will win 100%. Also if your feeling lucky Vitor Belfort is a big underdog against Anderson Silva and I think he is gong to do it!!!!

Any thoughts on Griffin v Franklin mate? I liked Griffin for this, the moneys been coming for him but you can still pick him up at 7/5... Jones is too short for me, basically 1/3 now and I don't think Belfort makes it 5 rounds. Only thing I'm considering betting wise would be Griffin outright though

Franklyn is gong to beat Griffn in the first round, he may go 2. Griffin is tough but overrated because of his heart and personality. Please dont bet Griffin buddy. Trust me.