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essex_chris

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Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 21:20 (permalink)
Pension funds losing money is just something that in principal is lost on me - it won't happen when i'm in charge.

I can understand having £X of pension money invested and having a bad year or two or three, but should the pot ever drop back to a certain point you'd stop and have it invested in something safe.

I can have a cast iron guaranteed rate of return with my money safe all over the world - it might not make a lot of money but it will still be there.

Pensions should be a big savings account which is secure and safe and how anyone can pretend that something so essential and important should be risked on anything that chances a loss is really something i don't understand.

I've had people try to tell me why you have to make that kind of investment to make any money but they have always come across as brainwashed and have never actually considered what they are saying instead of regurgitating what they have been told.

The idea that even 0.01% of people putting money into a pension can end up with less money than if they simply stuck it under their mattress over the years is inexplicable without somebody being to blame or a wholescale currency crash ala Nigeria or WW2 era problems.

If i'm talking tosh and their is a simple explanation please enlighten me - it may very well save a lot of investment bankers lives when i assume power
Awesome pic, but Tony you're not doing yourself many favours posting up tips on preventing the gag reflex and then a picture of a guy touching his toes - Ak
 
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    Rosc0PColtrane

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    Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 21:22 (permalink)
    I agree with the annuity issue. I'm not sure of the logic behind it whe there are plenty of income producing options out there. The odd thing is that it pays to be ill and a smoker, as it increases your monthly income, they expect you to die more quickly!!! They're essentially gambling on your life expectancy.

    I agree with the education bit and you've a point around the sales technique. A better education would mean more execution only cases and make it harder for more unscrupulous providers/advisors? The net result would actually be more sales!

    I didn't think the rates started to drop much before 1998? 1992 was the tail end of the last recession.
    "If you're going through hell, keep going!" - Winston Churchill

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    #82
      Rosc0PColtrane

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      Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 21:55 (permalink)
      essex_chris


      Pension funds losing money is just something that in principal is lost on me - it won't happen when i'm in charge.

      I can understand having £X of pension money invested and having a bad year or two or three, but should the pot ever drop back to a certain point you'd stop and have it invested in something safe.

      I can have a cast iron guaranteed rate of return with my money safe all over the world - it might not make a lot of money but it will still be there.

      Pensions should be a big savings account which is secure and safe and how anyone can pretend that something so essential and important should be risked on anything that chances a loss is really something i don't understand.

      I've had people try to tell me why you have to make that kind of investment to make any money but they have always come across as brainwashed and have never actually considered what they are saying instead of regurgitating what they have been told.

      The idea that even 0.01% of people putting money into a pension can end up with less money than if they simply stuck it under their mattress over the years is inexplicable without somebody being to blame or a wholescale currency crash ala Nigeria or WW2 era problems.

      If i'm talking tosh and their is a simple explanation please enlighten me - it may very well save a lot of investment bankers lives when i assume power


      Happy to try mate, though if you still wanted to kill the risky investment bankers, that would be fine. The guys who look after pension funds are slightly different animals.

      Clink on the link I provided on the previous page. The lines to look out for are RPI (retail price index, a measure of inflation), in light blue and the deposit return in purple. Below it. There's the significance. Over the long term, your safe deposits will be outperformed by inflation.

      This means that if your interest rate was 2% after tax (currently generous) and the inflation rate was 3% and a Ford Focus was £10,000. In 12 months time, because of inflation, It will cost £10,300. Your bank acount will have £10,200 in it. Your money no longer has the purchasing power to buy a Ford Focus. If you then multiply that until you hit retirement age, you'll see that potentially, you're in trouble.  Obviously interest rates and inflation rates change, but that is a gamble itself.

      So for someone who is worried about losing money, your proposed method will actually lose you money in real terms.

      If you look at the top performer on that chart. You'll see it's equities. You'll also notice that with the ups, there are downs too. If you look at significant happenings, like the Winter of Discontent in the 1970's, represented by the sharpest drop in value; at no time does the value actually drop lower than the initial investment.

      If you had invested the year before the winter of discontent, you would have lost money on your original investment, it took 3 years to get back to the same level it was prior to the drop. That's why shares are suitable for pensions. It's a long term thing. The long term enables you to ride out the drops. Fast forward 20 years and the slope is generally upwards. In the short terms, due to the costs of trading and risk to your money, deposit accounts are your best option.

      What if I told you that the drops in markets represented fantastic times to invest? It's called "pound cost averaging". To explain how that works, I first need to explain how shares are able to outpeform deposit accounts on the long term.

      When you put your money in the bank savings account, your comfortable that your deposit will not physically reduce. The bank will pay you interest which they earn by loaning your money out. So you earn bits and bobs of interest, but your deposit essentially stays the same value (yes the interest is applied and then you earn more interest, but seperate the two for now).

      When you invest in shares, your shares will have a buy value. Say your £100 buys you 100 shares at £1 each. This is essentially you owning a bit of a company, 100 bits to be precise. As an owner, the company will pay you dividends, which you could keep or use to buy more shares. Very much like interest. But here's the difference. The actual value of your shares can also increase or decrease. If the value of your shares increases to £2 a share, your holding is now worth £200. Plus you're still getting that lovely dividend too. So you can win in two ways. This is why shares outperform deposits.

      I understand your concerns with the risk to value of peoples investments, but that risk gives the invester the chance to get a better return and achieve their financial long term goals.

      So pound cost averaging. Lets say you bought your 100 shares at £1 for £100 total. Next month, the shares half in value. Your holding is worth £50, as the share value has halved. You've made a paper loss. You've not lost anything as you still have 100 shares. If you sell at that time, you'd be realising your loss and getting £50.

      Hold on though, you have £100 in your pocket. The shares are 50p each. Therefore, you buy another £100 of shares, but get 200 instead of 100. So now you have 300 shares in total.

      Next month, the share price increases to £2. You put £200 in. Your holding is 300 shares. Their value is now £600... The only downside is your £100 will only buy 50 shares.

      Essentially, it's a way of averaging out peaks and troughs. Over the course of the life of your investment. Say 20 years of £100 a month, by pound cost averaging, it does leave you with a better average value than with a lump sum of equal value invested in day one.

      I hope that helps. Sorry it's long winded, but I think it's necessary. Let me know your thoughts and questions.
      "If you're going through hell, keep going!" - Winston Churchill

      Cowards die a thousand deaths. The valiant taste of death but once.


       
      #83
        Rosc0PColtrane

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        Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 21:56 (permalink)
        tuc biscuit


        Rosc0PColtrane


        tuc biscuit


        I expect nothing by the time I reach retirement age from the government.

        For myself I am making other arrangments, stockpiling of various assets to be offloaded at a later date.

        In general I think as bad as pensions are now, they will get worse and people will get them later in future.


        Can I ask what makes you think they are so bad? And why they will get worse? Or do you mean the state pension. A lot of people fail to differentiate between state and private schemes.

         
         
        I meant state pensions.


        Then you're absolutely right. They've deteriorated significantly over the last 30-40 years and will only get worse.

        To the point the government is forcing people to start saving for retirement with a new system of "personal accounts".
        "If you're going through hell, keep going!" - Winston Churchill

        Cowards die a thousand deaths. The valiant taste of death but once.


         
        #84
          essex_chris

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          Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 22:02 (permalink)
          Cheers for the lengthy reply. I'll read it and come back later to see if there is much more than people have told me before.

          It's the basic idea of people who should have many tens of thousands of pounds who are left with at most a few thousand and are screwed - this is what i don't get.

          I'll have a proper digest of what you posted and see if i have any queries.

          Thanks again for your proper reply
          Awesome pic, but Tony you're not doing yourself many favours posting up tips on preventing the gag reflex and then a picture of a guy touching his toes - Ak
           
          #85
            tac

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            Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 22:04 (permalink)
            Off-topic

            Roscoe - who is the quote in the second line of your sig from?


             
            #86
              essex_chris

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              Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 22:46 (permalink)
              Thanks again for that reply Rosco - very interesting food for thought and the PDF is a great demonstrator of the difference between 'safe' deposits and inflation.

              There would i imagine be a vast chasm between slightly less safe deposits that might not perform as well as expected and high risk investments that lose a lot or it all.

              I know in my own mind that having to restrict a living allowance a little by budgeting and tightening your belt would be preferable to not having a belt or a budget!

              There's got to be a happier medium.

              Will give it some thought and consider my actions carefully when i line people up against the wall
              Awesome pic, but Tony you're not doing yourself many favours posting up tips on preventing the gag reflex and then a picture of a guy touching his toes - Ak
               
              #87
                Rosc0PColtrane

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                Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 23:57 (permalink)
                essex_chris


                Thanks again for that reply Rosco - very interesting food for thought and the PDF is a great demonstrator of the difference between 'safe' deposits and inflation.

                There would i imagine be a vast chasm between slightly less safe deposits that might not perform as well as expected and high risk investments that lose a lot or it all.

                I know in my own mind that having to restrict a living allowance a little by budgeting and tightening your belt would be preferable to not having a belt or a budget!

                There's got to be a happier medium.

                Will give it some thought and consider my actions carefully when i line people up against the wall


                I've given a very generic explanation mate. If for example I set up your pension. The fund would have about 200 different shares/bonds in it. Depending on your attitude to risk (you're clearly a cautious bloke), the fund would be either more or less risky by weighting the fund portfolio ether more or less in shares.

                Your concerns are not uncommon, hence the diversity. In normal situations values do go up and down. By having so many shares/bonds in a portfolio, it reduces the risk of impact if a company within the portfolio goes bust. There's no cast iron guarantee, but you can take steps to reduce the risk as much as possible.

                Northern Rock and Iceland (the country) show that even places you assume to be secure can go pop.


                Cowards die a thousand deaths. The valiant taste of death but once.

                "If you're going through hell, keep going!" - Winston Churchill

                Cowards die a thousand deaths. The valiant taste of death but once.


                 
                #88
                  Rosc0PColtrane

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                  Re:Retirement..... 21 November 2009 23:59 (permalink)
                  tac


                  Off-topic

                  Roscoe - who is the quote in the second line of your sig from?


                  It's a William Shakespear quote. From Julius Caesar. Not read the play. Saw the quote out of context, loved it. I quietly admire Julius Caesar too, so that made it even more fitting.
                  "If you're going through hell, keep going!" - Winston Churchill

                  Cowards die a thousand deaths. The valiant taste of death but once.


                   
                  #89
                    Blue_Lagoon3000

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                    Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 10:08 (permalink)
                    Ross you said in an earlier post "Thats exactly what i'd expect yo hear from someone who knows nothing about pensions" Fair enough i'll admit you know more than me about pensions but i actually know quite a bit. Im confident with no pension plans.

                    I'll outline for you my plans, take for example a £200,000 House/Apartment if your Mortgage is payed off you will get currently £600/700 pcm in rent, thats a minimum of £150 per week, already much higher than your £90 in a state pension.

                    Now if you have 10 similar properties = £6k pcm, 20 = 12k pcm or even 30 then you could be be on 18k a month when you retire. Bricks and mortar do not dissapear, sure recessions can effect sale values but i am 100% correct in saying that investing in to property is better than investing in a risky pension plan.
                     
                    #90
                      Varg

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                      Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 10:15 (permalink)
                      Blue, that would be my preffered retirement plan as well but it's getting one extra property never mind 10 that is the difficult part.

                      Not to mention that this isn't a solution for everyone because you will always need tenants, who will not presumably have their own property empire.


                       
                      #91
                        Wheels

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                        Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 10:32 (permalink)
                        Blue_Lagoon3000

                        Bricks and mortar do not dissapear, sure recessions can effect sale values but i am 100% correct in saying that investing in to property is better than investing in a risky pension plan.


                        Recessions can and do kill rental yields as well.  The only way for you to buy a property porffoilo is through borrowing, that increases the risk dramatically, much higher than a pension.

                        Your judgement of risk in this case is wrong, as is you idea property is a better investment.  Over the long term, the return on property is only a fraction of shares and not much better than gilts with a much higher risk.
                        A fully paid up spokesperson for Big Oil and board member for the illuminati, posting from a tropical tax haven.  Caution: Posts may not have any moral content.




                         
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                          Blue_Lagoon3000

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                          Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 10:34 (permalink)
                          Varg


                          Blue, that would be my preffered retirement plan as well but it's getting one extra property never mind 10 that is the difficult part.

                          Not to mention that this isn't a solution for everyone because you will always need tenants, who will not presumably have their own property empire.


                          Yeah and to be truthful i don't even have 1 of my own yet so im no tycoon by any means, but i do know a lot about the property market as i was working for a property investment firm at a young age.. I plan to buy and start investing next year. And yes keeping tennants in is not easy but for that you can use management companies who spend all day every day looking for tennants, if stuck you can buy tennants or just give them a % of the rent.
                           
                          #93
                            peagreen

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                            Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 11:28 (permalink)
                            Blue_Lagoon3000

                            Yeah and to be truthful i don't even have 1 of my own yet so im no tycoon by any means, but i do know a lot about the property market as i was working for a property investment firm at a young age.. I plan to buy and start investing next year. And yes keeping tennants in is not easy but for that you can use management companies who spend all day every day looking for tennants, if stuck you can buy tennants or just give them a % of the rent.

                            Aren't you still only just out of nappies anyway Blue?

                            <message edited by peagreen on 22 November 2009 11:36>
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                            #94
                              Blue_Lagoon3000

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                              Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 12:12 (permalink)
                              peagreen


                              Blue_Lagoon3000

                              Yeah and to be truthful i don't even have 1 of my own yet so im no tycoon by any means, but i do know a lot about the property market as i was working for a property investment firm at a young age.. I plan to buy and start investing next year. And yes keeping tennants in is not easy but for that you can use management companies who spend all day every day looking for tennants, if stuck you can buy tennants or just give them a % of the rent.

                              Aren't you still only just out of nappies anyway Blue?


                              Yep im just out of nappies but knowing what i know already at 23 is giving me a good start in to this messed up yet beautiful world.
                               
                              #95
                                Blue_Lagoon3000

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                                Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 12:16 (permalink)
                                Wheels


                                Blue_Lagoon3000

                                Bricks and mortar do not dissapear, sure recessions can effect sale values but i am 100% correct in saying that investing in to property is better than investing in a risky pension plan.


                                Recessions can and do kill rental yields as well.  The only way for you to buy a property porffoilo is through borrowing, that increases the risk dramatically, much higher than a pension.

                                Your judgement of risk in this case is wrong, as is you idea property is a better investment.  Over the long term, the return on property is only a fraction of shares and not much better than gilts with a much higher risk.


                                Yes recessions can lower rental but not by much though £100 tops, and there may be borrowing involved for the mortgage but whats so risky about that when all you have to do is keep tennants in?
                                 
                                #96
                                  Wheels

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                                  Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 12:30 (permalink)
                                  Blue_Lagoon3000

                                  Yes recessions can lower rental but not by much though £100 tops, and there may be borrowing involved for the mortgage but whats so risky about that when all you have to do is keep tennants in?


                                  lol.  Your yeild can drop to 0%, no tenant = no money to pay mortgage etc.  Gaps in tenants is what kills real estate investors who buy and hold.  Getting and holding good tenants in a flooded market is hard, relying on a property manager to do it is just plain bonkers.  Your going to pay them, what, 10-15% as well?  That will put your investment into a loss vs inflation.

                                  The reality is it's much harder than it looks and there are very few people who manage it successfully over the long term.  There are much better ways to make money in real estate.
                                  A fully paid up spokesperson for Big Oil and board member for the illuminati, posting from a tropical tax haven.  Caution: Posts may not have any moral content.




                                   
                                  #97
                                    Blue_Lagoon3000

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                                    Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 12:41 (permalink)
                                    Wheels


                                    Blue_Lagoon3000

                                    Yes recessions can lower rental but not by much though £100 tops, and there may be borrowing involved for the mortgage but whats so risky about that when all you have to do is keep tennants in?


                                    lol.  Your yeild can drop to 0%, no tenant = no money to pay mortgage etc.  Gaps in tenants is what kills real estate investors who buy and hold.  Getting and holding good tenants in a flooded market is hard, relying on a property manager to do it is just plain bonkers.  Your going to pay them, what, 10-15% as well?  That will put your investment into a loss vs inflation.

                                    The reality is it's much harder than it looks and there are very few people who manage it successfully over the long term.  There are much better ways to make money in real estate.


                                    I never said it was easy its all about buying at the right place at the right time, it can be a pain with a large portfolio i have a contact who bought a load in a sh!tty area and he's constantly getting phone calls saying your tennant has left the house trashed and took all the appliances/furniture etc
                                     
                                    But about yeild it can't really drop to 0% unless you have no tennant, and if your not in a saturated area you'll find tennants if you put the legwork/marketing in.
                                     
                                    #98
                                      peagreen

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                                      Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 12:44 (permalink)
                                      It is sometimes better to take a slight loss on a tenant and have a reliable one, than to have unreliable or worse empty  properties.  As an investment topping up by a fifth is now respectable, I was told that the days are gone that you make a profit on an investment property!!  Of course it is quite easy to build a portfolio once you have one buy to let because you seem to be able to get mortgages a lot easier but then if it does go wrong it can be a long way to fall!!
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                                      #99
                                        Wheels

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                                        Re:Retirement..... 22 November 2009 12:58 (permalink)
                                        Blue_Lagoon3000

                                        I never said it was easy its all about buying at the right place at the right time, it can be a pain with a large portfolio i have a contact who bought a load in a sh!tty area and he's constantly getting phone calls saying your tennant has left the house trashed and took all the appliances/furniture etc
                                         
                                        But about yeild it can't really drop to 0% unless you have no tennant, and if your not in a saturated area you'll find tennants if you put the legwork/marketing in.


                                        Having no tennant is common, your going to have a property vancant on average 10% of the year.  You sugest relying on a property manager to get new tenant, how motivated do you think they are?  Do you think they are putting that legwork and marketing in when you have a vacancy?  The agent in the last place I rented didn't start marketing until the day I moved out!  That means a gap of at least a month even if a tenant shows up within a week.  Extrapolate that across a property portfolio and the return will be devistated.

                                        You also have no control over weather or not your area is saturated.  It might not be when you buy, but this can change dramaticaly in only a year or two.  When your planning to hold for long term, this is a serious risk.
                                        A fully paid up spokesperson for Big Oil and board member for the illuminati, posting from a tropical tax haven.  Caution: Posts may not have any moral content.




                                         
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