The Official MT Stockmarket thread :-)

CheekyChappie


Anyone read 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nicholas Naseem Taleb?

Randomness would suggest that the outcome is not affected by any influence.

This is clearly not the case with price action. The most obvious influence is the human one. Human nature is uncannily predictable.

Blue_Lagoon3000


Oh right ok but isn's SPX Spirax-Sarco Engineering? im confused

Its both! SPX on the UK exchange is Spirax-Sarco Engineering.
 
I was confused as to which we were reffering since the numerical values were similar.  Search "S&P 500"for SPX the American index.

march109

Shorting? Who do you use, I was using IGIndex.

IG are good. I use iii or CMC

PartyBoy

CheekyChappie


Anyone read 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nicholas Naseem Taleb?

Randomness would suggest that the outcome is not affected by any influence.

This is clearly not the case with price action. The most obvious influence is the human one. Human nature is uncannily predictable.

Agreed, in most cases people always over correct and are far more pessimistic than optomistic IMO,especially now, especially in the UK (in any circumstances!)

S&P currently 1084 & falling.

Today could be tthe day ;-)

Banks WILL get stonger if you can wait (10 years minimum), though as UK tax payers we allready hold banking stock.  IIRC Norway bailed banks out with government money and made a profit on their investments some years later, allowing for lower taxes and greater public spending.

I like holding banking and pharmacutical stocks long term.  I hold oil too but IMO its risky who knows whats going to happen tomorrow with a limited resource like oil, but while the world has an economy and goods are bought and sold there will always be banks. 

PartyBoy


S&P currently 1084 & falling.

Today could be tthe day ;-)

You don't think it will rebound soon? From what I can gather sub prime repo's are on the rise again, unemployment is still growing and Obama isn't clear on his banking reforms or wether there will be a global agreement on them, all this has dragged the S&P lower %-wise than any other index.
 
In fact I believe when Obama sorts his arse out and theres common understanding of what he actually proposes the S&P will rebound, traders hate uncertainty more so than bad news.

Ok from what ive heard the stockmarket can be great or it can loose loads of money but it seems interesting.

If you were to have a go and say invest £100 every week what would you invest in? Also where do you find out whats good and whats not?

march109

You don't think it will rebound soon?

I do expect a bounce.

Could be from around this level, or we may go further toward 1065 before retesting resistance at 1104

im(very)ho, the general trend is down, 12-18 month timeframe.

march109

You don't think it will rebound soon? From what I can gather sub prime repo's are on the rise again, unemployment is still growing and Obama isn't clear on his banking reforms or wether there will be a global agreement on them, all this has dragged the S&P lower %-wise than any other index.
 
In fact I believe when Obama sorts his arse out and theres common understanding of what he actually proposes the S&P will rebound, traders hate uncertainty more so than bad news.

The US market specifically?  It's either the end of a bull trap in a bear market for the next 1-2 years or your seeing the first dip in a cheap credit fulled bull market.

Throw your dice

Blue_Lagoon3000


If you were to have a go and say invest £100 every week what would you invest in?

I wouldn't!


Save you cash and start your portfolio at cheaper prices a good while from now

Blue_Lagoon3000


Ok from what ive heard the stockmarket can be great or it can loose loads of money but it seems interesting.

If you were to have a go and say invest £100 every week what would you invest in? Also where do you find out whats good and whats not?

It's getting on a bit, but this is a sound place to start

http://www.amazon.co.uk...id=1264713501&sr=8-1

I'm sure there is a thread somewhere with a reading list too.

So you think it would be good to research properly, wait and maybe put some larger sums in to the right shares at the right time?

Blue_Lagoon3000


Ok from what ive heard the stockmarket can be great or it can loose loads of money but it seems interesting.

If you were to have a go and say invest £100 every week what would you invest in? Also where do you find out whats good and whats not?

Since the cost of the transaction (the fee for buying or selling usually around £15) plus tax is levied at the purchase for your £100 you'll only get £80 worth of shares.
 
If you want to pick your own shares use a cheaper purchasing method like this:
http://www.fool.co.uk/share-dealing/share-dealing.aspx
 
£1.50 per trade HOWEVER the shares are bulk purchased once a week, when a few people have come in on the same shares as you this means you don't always know the price your buying at until you get your shares.
 
When you pay £15 the trade is done at a negotiated price agreed at the time of the trade so you can monitor the market minute by minute and get the best price for you.
 
Alternativly open an account like the Halifax Share Builder (all banks have this type of account) again you pick your own shares trade prices are modestly priced but I don't rate them for the novice.
 
In my opinion, and my opinion in no way represents proffesional advice if I were you I would open an index tracking fund held within an ISA, many banks also do this so shop around.  Consider annual fund fees and what they actually invest in.
 
For example my sister is a happy clappy type so she invests monthly in a ethincal fund managed by sun alliance all wrapped up in a tax efficient ISA. 
 
Basically for example the tracker tracks the value of a given index, the FTSE 100 is one such index if you put your £100 into the FTSE 100 tracker fund you would (in simplest terms) get an equal share in every company so when the index value goes up you have made money if it falls you've lost money, tracker funds are worth looking into.

Blue_Lagoon3000


So you think it would be good to research properly, wait and maybe put some larger sums in to the right shares at the right time?

No.  Simply seen all your money to me.

This will save you all the pain and hope of watching your stocks fall, fall, then rally, fall, bounce a bit, then fall off the earth just before they are suspended.  And it will save you all the time in having to arrange a broker, paperwork and that other nasty stuff.

It really is the cheaoest option for you

Having said that I wish I started a SIPP years ago, but TBH I never think I'll see it to maturity, so tracker funds for me.

Hell I could sell all my holdings and buy a nice new M3, after all if I don't and I have to catch a bus everywhere I might be mowed down crossing the street!

IMO for a decade or more £100 pcm is a nice amount to put into an ISA as cash, shares or fund.  At your age you can't go wrong. 

By the way I hope no one followed my tip of MTA a while back.
RNS came in saying there had been delays in the drilling (I assumed they had already started), and share price plumetted 20%.
 Lost a sh1t load of money but that the way it works!

You know when they something like "Company A is just about to be amalgamate with Company B which means company A is going to be totally revolutionised and share prices will go through the roof"

^ Whats going on like this atm?

Kraft/Caburys

Blue - I think the best approach you can take is to spend a bit of money on decent books regarding investing.

Don't you own your own company? Why not invest most your time and capital expanding that? Maybe invest a couple of hundred quid a month in a tracker, and spend the rest of your efforts trying to expand and generate profits from a company you know better than anyone else and have full control over...