The Official MT Stockmarket thread :-)

Seems plenty of interest in this area so I thought I might start a thread to get some ideas thrown around. We can discuss anything:

Individual stocks, sectors, indices, commodities, forex, CFD's, spread-bets, options, porn

So to kick off - Have we seen the bottom?

I think not. Although we saw massive volume as the last of the sellers were forced out a couple of days ago, and then the huge upswing yesterday, this has failed to hold steady, with the Dow again falling almost 800 points in 6hrs (around 8.5% or so). This was almost flashing beacon signalled as a classic bear market rally and I took advantage shorting it strongly.

I'm perhaps more bearish than most and am looking for perhaps 3280 on the FTSE, finding support at the lows of early 2003. I'll be looking to add stocks as long term holds from 3500 downwards.


Better thought I'd mention too that any comments made here are not meant to consitute advice. You should always do your own research. Stockmarkets can go down as well as up (no sh1t sherlock lol). Only ever invest money that you are prepared to lose. etc etc etc

Do you think any other uk banks will completley fail like B&B and Northern Rock?

Not bottom, but close.  On Friday there where good companies in the US with a market cap less than the cash they had in the bank.  Values like that haven't occured since '31-32

BT trading at a yeild of 11-12%? Not your bag PB, but that is very good value in my book.

If we do hit 3500, well that will be a once in a generation buying op.

(nice disclamer too lol)

Pb I think we will fall further than that, we are still no way near half way through this imo. The country is in a mountain of debt and rising, unemployment rising, mewing is at an end, massive and quite useless public sector to support, ageing population e.t.c

Wheels, I agree looking at some p/e ratios it's tempting to buy, but like i said we are in a downtrend which is not going to be reversing anytime soon.

As for me I really dont care tbh, I'm a trend trader (indices/forex) and the trends at the moment are quite incredible, long may they continue!!

I have no experience with the stockmarket but I am however looking to learn so I will be watching this thread.

The whole thing is a little over my head but some guys I know who are in the know reckon while this is bad it will be nothing compared to what may happen in a few years once China's domestic market has kicked in fully and they no longer need to deal/help/bail out other countries.

Don't ask me the specifics as I have no idea (got kiced off A level economics)

dirtyvest


The whole thing is a little over my head but some guys I know who are in the know reckon while this is bad it will be nothing compared to what may happen in a few years once China's domestic market has kicked in fully and they no longer need to deal/help/bail out other countries.

Don't ask me the specifics as I have no idea (got kiced off A level economics)

China developing a decent domestic market will be a very, very good thing for everyone.  It will mean other counties will be exporting to China and some of the huge trade imbalance China has with the rest of the World will be corrected.

It also means you will be looking at the largest shift from povety to properity ever seen.

Traceable money in banks and investments is not realy my thing. But I think the next US Goverment in power will shape the path of the Worlds banking situation over the next 18 months.

Currently the Black markets are the place to be during the crisis (IMO)

Personally i think that we are going to see a shift in the market here now. Banks being injected with capital and having debt guaranteed by govts. was exactly what the financial institutions needed in order to shore up their balance sheets. Financials should now be ok. The consequences of this is that taxes will rise in order to pay for this.

So whilst this is a positive and will add much needed support to financial stocks and i do think that we can see a more sustained rally here in risky assets, it doesn't fix the deeper issues in the global economy. I think that we are now approaching the end of the banking crisis and we will transition into the recessionary phase of the bear market.

What is needed is for the money markets to free up and the banks to begin lending to each other and companies again. The confidence to do this however is going to take a very long time to return. It's also going to take a very long time for western economies to begin growing again. Without economic growth there is no demand either.

I think the recession is going to be long and deep. This in itself is another credit crisis. Companies which can not fund themselves at sensible levels are going to default. Corporates are the next phase of this slow down. Financials and the consumer always lead the early signs of economic slow downs and recessions. Now we will begin to see companies go bust. This leads to higher unemployment, less consumer spending, you get the idea...

I'd be short autos, short retailers, short media, long telcos, long utils, long fins.

China is not the only country to keep an eye on. Emerging market countries are far more shielded from the longer term effects that we will see and so will the US. Emerging market countries are far less levered than we are. People own their property, don't have car loans, bank loans, multiple credit cards etc...they pay cash. I think in the next decade or more we are going to see a massive shift globally in wealth. India, China, Brazil, these are all going to be stronger after this.

how do people learn whats good to buy and whats not. im not talking inside trading etc but surely the general public must be able to gain some info that helps them to decide where to buy. obviously atm its highlighted alot in the media but what about during more stable times, how do you decide what to buy? it cant all be guess work otherwise you might aswell go play roulette in the casino!

from what i gather you cant go on media as that is too late and you will have already missed the opportunity

john_cappa


from what i gather you cant go on media as that is too late and you will have already missed the opportunity

thats exactly my point!

how can you make an educated guess on buying. people must have some idea of whats coming up before it actually happens, teher must be a source for this kind of info otherwise its purely gambling (i know the stockmarket is a gamble to a degree)

guess work, ha, have to smile

People train their whole lives to understand how to identify what is considered a good investment and what is trash. Before you buy into anything you need to have a basic grasp of economics and the baility to look at a company, understand it's business, the conditions which effect its business, it's financial position and so on and so forth. There are lots of training courses with specialist companies, rating agencies (Moody's, Standard and Poors, Fitch) and others.

A good place to begin would be to read the economist everyday, you aren't plugged into the market like traders are, but as an individual it is better to look for long term investments

liken trading to playing poker

Its a skill
it can be learned to a degree
some people are better at it to others
no guarentees
Tables can turn in an instant

Anz, from what I can gather you are talking about investing, investing is basically about finding value in a company and buying into it for the long term. There is a multitude of information available, but it is not easy. It's a full time job/career and takes many years to learn.

I'm a trader which is different, but no less or more difficult than investing. I find it easier. When I trade I use charts exclusively, I dont listen to any news, I don't read any market commentary, I don't let anything influence what the charts tell me. I never think that the charts can't go higher, or that they can't go any lower, as soon as you do that you are projecting your own incorrect vision onto a price which will do it's own thing regardless!

i'm just looking into trading now, looking at trading the spread though so as long as there's movement in the market either up or down then i can make money. I'm just getting a feel for watching the markest move and how sticking points are created etc. Finding it very interesting at the moment and will hopefully be making my first trades in a few weeks.

Anyone else a day trader?

i should hopefully be getting £800 from some ebay transactions soon and thinking about investing it in some shares, but what would be the best bet? I was thinking of banking, but i think ive missed that ship as they've starting shooting back up. Ive had shares in mining companys before which i sold and got a holiday out of so was thinking of dropping all my money into those for the long run. Thoughts?

Wish i had some money to invest i missed a cracking opportunity with Regent Inns due to some inside knowledge could have made a killing but sadly had sod all money.

Im looking at the markets quite alot because im trying to get a job intrading banking and well no one is hiring so thinking i may have to look elsewhere because they dont seem to think that we are at bottom yet and most have frozen hiring for this year and deferred the current entries so if there uncertain i think the public should be too



Ras

Trident


Traceable money in banks and investments is not realy my thing. But I think the next US Goverment in power will shape the path of the Worlds banking situation over the next 18 months.

Currently the Black markets are the place to be during the crisis (IMO)

What's a black market?