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RE: Guns in universities - Apr. 18 2008 13:32:49
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daveshow
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From: Dunbartonshire
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What is needed is proper gun control, where people have to attend training glasses, psycologial tests, CRB checks etc. One of the reasons I want to get out of this country is the total disreguard for the rights of law abiding citizens.
If you were a criminal and you knew that if you were going to break the law and you could end up facing an armed opponent would that make you think twice?
< Message edited by daveshow -- Apr. 18 2008 13:33:46 >
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ORIGINAL: drab4
You're actually trying to cause potentially fatal accidents, because you don't like horses?
That is rather odd
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RE: Guns in universities - Apr. 18 2008 14:05:12
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Wheels
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Well, that's a fair comment, I suppose. However, you may be surprised to learn that the gun control legislation passed in the wake of Dunblane was followed by a 50% reduction in gun-related deaths in the UK. Although there has been a slight increase in recent years, the current level remains over 40% below that for the last year before this legislation came into effect.
And actually, Professor Killias' data are supported by worldwide data. There is a significant correlation between murder rates and gun ownership. This doesn't mean there can't be statistical outliers (there always are), that correlation means a perfect +1.0 relationship, or that his study does not have its limitations, but overall his statement is well-supported by the data.
Switzerland and Norway are not even outliers to the degree you might suppose on this correlation (they are outliers to some extent, for sure, but perhaps not quite to the degree you imagine). Both countries have murder rates (per million of population) around double that of England and Wales, and gun-related murder rates 4 or 5 times higher (NZ's and Aus's murder rates are over 3 times that of England and Wales,and their gun-related murder rates over 5 times higher).
One real outlier in terms of overall murder rate, incidentally, is Scotland, with a murder rate almost 3 times that of England and Wales but presumably similar levels of gun ownership. However, Scotland's gun-related murder rate remains very low by world standards, and lower than any other country examined in Killias' study except England and Wales. I am not convinced the extremely high gun-related murder rate in NI could be considered as outlying either considering the level of gun-related paramilitary activity it has experienced for many years.
Not really surpised to see a reduction in gun deaths with gun control, accidents & suicide would make up quite a large chunk of that figure. That really is my issue with those figures, it lumps criminal use of guns into overall figures to create the argument. Just read some of his study (should have done that first lol), and it concluded a weak correlation between total murder rate and gun ownership. I would aggree there is a weak correlation, but it makes no distinction between legal and illegal guns I just can't see his data supporting the concept that stricter gun control = less gun crime.
Getting true data on this is a bit difficult, there are few 'neutral' studies around or at least ones that are not hijacked one way or the other.
As for the Scottish...they have a history of not using guns, even against musket armed red coats 
Wheels
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RE: Guns in universities - Apr. 18 2008 16:20:24
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Strumpus
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Yes, I agree that accidents and suicide will make up some of those figures. There is still a fall in gun-related deaths, though, even if some of those will be accident/suicide. Also, as the survey makes clear, most of these will likely be in Northern Ireland, which is a case in itself. It would be interesting to see the figures for the UK minus NI, but I can't find any. On the whole, I'd agree that we can't read a huge amount into this in itself, but in the absence of other data, it's at least noteworthy.
Killias' data, though, don't lump figures together like this - they work only from murders, with and without guns. I think you short-change his study a little, to be fair. It is the correlation between gun ownership and non-gun related homicide that is weak (0.212 discounting USA and NI). However, 0.610 (the total correlation for gun ownership and homicide of all kinds - p.20 of the study) is not a weak correlation in statistical terms. We would usually call a correlation below about 0.25 "weak". Around 0.6 is well into the "medium-strong" classification. Overall, Killias concludes (rightly, in my opinion): "substantial correlations were found between gun ownership and gun-related as well as total suicide and homicide rates." [my emphasis]
I also don't think it's fair to insinuate it may not be a "neutral" study. It is based on the International Crime Survey, and analysed using transparent and established statistical tests.
What is perhaps most interesting to me, and what Killias does not draw out fully, is that countries like Norway, Switzerland, Italy and France have similar non-gun-related murder rates to the England and Wales, and it is only when you factor in gun-related murders that they jump to 2-4 times the England & Wales rates. To my mind, that speaks to some degree about the added impact that gun availability can make to a country's murder rate.
I think you are probably right about there being no distinction made between legal and illegal guns (although I'm not really sure why that would be particularly relevant). The survey did only collect information on "gun-ownership" and homicide/suicide. However, it did exclude military guns as well (substantial in the case of Switzerland). I agree that there isn't enough data on this subject to take the arguments further, but I equally don't think there is any good scientific reason to dismiss these particular findings, either.
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RE: Guns in universities - Apr. 18 2008 19:52:57
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daveshow
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I would also like to see the statistis without NI when handguns were perfectly legal at the height of the troubles.
The reason legal and non-legal guns are relevent is because Legal guns are bought by honest citizens to be used for sporting purposes etc. Illegally obtained firearms are to be used in crime. before handguns were banned in UK most gun crime was commited by illegaly obtained guns anyway so it has had no difference only stopped honest people from enjoying a sport.
< Message edited by daveshow -- Apr. 18 2008 19:59:59 >
_____________________________
quote:
ORIGINAL: drab4
You're actually trying to cause potentially fatal accidents, because you don't like horses?
That is rather odd
BW 12st 05lbs
Bench 90KG 1RM
Squats 100kg 5 reps
Deads 140kg 1RM
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