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Helpful ReplyHot!Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out

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doc
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/11/29 23:34:54 (permalink)
+1 (1)
Manuforti
Hmmm. I haven't been on site for a while and literally popped in to see what doc was arguing about Brexit.

So... The brexiteers did lie. Aaron banks is a **** and has admitted spreading untruths. The Brexiteers secretarys have all been criminally stupid,, lazy and wouldn't survive an 8 hour shift in any place I've ever worled. I think where Aaron banks donation money came from is irrelevant unless it was russia imp I'd let him off with that. I understood why the working classes voted for brexit. Especially white British working class boys. In our world where you are told you carry the guilt of white privilege while simultaneously being the least likely group to get a university education you may as well smash the walls and hope Camelot gets built. Poor souls don't understand whichever economic systems are built they will be on the bottom of it. I even understand why economically conservative Asians voted for it. To suffer real racism propping up manufacturing and saving for years to start a business then to compete with the next waves in immigration is not in your interest. I never understood why posho's voted for it. Now I do, Jacob Rees mogg is a charlatan disaster capitalist hoping to harvest the smashed remains of our country dressed up as Jeeves and Wooster.

Boris Johnson is playing brinksman ship with his own party and wouldn't accept the premiership during the transmission period if you put a gun to his head.

I think Jeremy Corbyn ( who I like and think isn't half as radical as people think, he's just labour ) is now playing a very dangerous game. I think he may well force no deal brexit and hope the aftermath will destroy the Tories for generations. Sadly I think he may believe in the long run this will be worth it.

yeah both campaigns where run with dishonesty and shyster's , but I like the idea of democracy and if you're going to have a government you elect , you might as well to have the power to un seet them , tighter immigration I would be in favour off , but that is based on our sh1tty setup , I would prefer a removal of benefits completely and retain an open door immigration policy  , but having refugees wondering through 6 countries and crossing the sea to get here is just window shopping for the most free stuff, so if Uriel or some polish dude wants to come over and work then im ok with that , if he displaces a british worker then he is gonna have to get better and be more productive ( competition)
I pretty much ignored all of the campaigns and promises , my decision to vote brexit was based on freedom/totalitarianism. That was it.  
 
I like Corbyn but would never vote for him , anyone who brags about how great venezuela's is and promotes there setup as a way emulate is very radical . Socialists cant reall be anything other than radical imo essentially they are always saying give me your money or i'll send you to jail and me and my cronies will decide how to waste it and buy a few votes.  I don't think we have any politicians that are immune to this behaviour , its just the left are more prone to it , If corbyn got in power the taxes increase
would probably see me leave the country (not by choice but it simply wouldn't be viable for me to stay)
 
Manuforti
Oh, and I agree with doc, two adults now pretty much need to work full time to pay rent. Cheap goods comes from buying **** made by child slaves in China and the slaves picking our veg.

 
Shh that dose of reality doesn't fit a remoaners view , yes chinese slave labour pretty much gives us good for nothing as they try and stimulate artificial growth of their economy and at the same  the chinese are decimating the Yuan to not lose there export economy , our western bankers criticise China for doing this even though we do the exact same , China dump currency and spends it through the state in building infrastructure, manufacturing, ghost cities and the west do the same through artificially lowering interest rates , so the whole world is in a currency war/trade war, but lets look at a few blips in isolation £v$ in this long term current continuing trend and blame Brexit , even though its the central bankers who are pulling these levers. 
 

 

 
Swiss franc v euro 
 

 
dollar v Swiss franc 
 
Why not use swiss franc as a comparison , it's more stable than the euro or $
 

 
House price stability I see 
 



 
Same story in all 3 currencies , bu yeah its brexit !!
 
Energy /oil is a bit harder to correlate now we have OPEC in control , massive futures , natural gas's, fracking. A finite resource that is being used up, so probably will get more expensive as time goes on.
 
 

 
So as great as the eu is they have much worse prices than the US
 

 
This doesn't fit with either CPI/RPI increases 
So the prices was going up pre/post Brexit , its a trend line , this isn't inflation , it's because of devaluation , seems everything that happened before but anything that happened post 2016 is Brexit ?  I was also 19 stone in 2016 , maybe that's what caused it 
 

 
same story everywhere you look.
 

 
pound v euro, looks like another unsable currency to me , but they suffered s little more in 2008 due to the poor makeup of the member states and the Euro which is never going to work , they only wanted us to adopt the euro so it's impossible to leave.
 
so to look at Brexit and blame it for a decline in the £ is asinine.  if you look through an anti brexit lens you can make it fit if you ignore central banking/debt/history , but I can keep going with the facts all day and prove you wrong , also we haven't left yet, will the pound suffer when we have left ? possibly but it will probably bounce back , but all paper currencies are doomed to fail , one of the reasons they want an EU army is so they can force countries to take it with the threat of war , bit like the dollar .
 
Id suggest some good book to read like 
 
https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/Currency-Wars-Audiobook/B006IWC368?source_code=M2M30DFT1BkSH121515013C&ipRedirectOverride=true
 
https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/The-Death-of-Money-Audiobook/B06WGLQ3ST?qid=1543577681&sr=sr_1_2&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_2&pf_rd_p=c6e316b8-14da-418d-8f91-b3cad83c5183&pf_rd_r=4E6S770NM8MY6AECG43Y&
 
https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/The-Creature-from-Jekyll-Island-Audiobook/B00E0HEP00?qid=1543577712&sr=sr_1_1&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_1&pf_rd_p=c6e316b8-14da-418d-8f91-b3cad83c5183&pf_rd_r=C9QG3R3T69NA0WEG9A2E&
 
But I think your mind is way to closed to accept these facts .
post edited by doc - 2018/11/30 11:36:13
Uriel
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/11/30 14:17:34 (permalink)
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doc
Its well understood that living standards are declining , we now need two workers per family to make ends meet despite massive advances in technology . my argument isn't the financial crisis , we are always in crisis , we are still in crisis the banks are not fundamentally sound , they issue currency , control is supply and value and your pound losing value isn't inflation its devaluation , the banks charter was to give price stability and increase the supply of currency to match the extra goods and services in the economy, then it was changed to be 2% inflation target(even though it got to 4-10%) , QE and money printing into a recession is the deliberate practice of cheapening your currency thus devaluation (whilst being inflationary) inflation in practice should be to match extra goods/services/increase in currency and give stable prices to offset deflation and not enough currency being available and people having to spend 0.00001 pence for goods . If you work out the % of your wage to shopping/heating/energy/mortgage bill it's never been higher despite massive advances in technology, cheaper energy, better radiators, white goods, more efficient cars. 

This loss in purchasing power is precisely a result of the financial crisis, before 2008 purchasing power was going up steadily. Real wages adjusted to inflation were going up right up until the crash and they've been mostly stagnant since, because the crash was so bad that most developed countries haven't been able to fully recover yet. That's also the sort of event you're looking at when you leave the EU without a trade deal.
 
 
docYou can buy less gold today than in 1973

Quick google search (google figures might need to double check), approximate numbers:
Kg of gold in 1973: 1400 GBP 
Kg of gold in 2017: 29900 GBP
UK GDP per capita in 1973: 1370 GBP
UK GPD per capita in 2017: 30000 GBP
 
What am I missing here? Where's that 90% devaluation you speak of? The mattress point is precisely the sort of silly one that disregards inflation. You earn a lot more 10£ notes now than you did in 1973. Storing cash under your mattress for 40 years is stupid, it doesn't collect interest, invest it in something that returns interest equal to inflation and it'll buy just as much stuff years later. Cash is meant to be exchanged not stored, it's designed to be a practical universal means of currency not a way to store wealth.
 
What you're conveniently ignoring is that regardless of what is going on in economies around the world and how inflation/devaluation affects the financial system across the board, this whole Brexit mess is causing a considerable loss of value of the pound besides all the other facts. This isn't the pound and dollar both buying less gold but more or less in the same proportion, it's about the pound buying less dollars. These hypothetical trade deals the UK will be making around the world will involve exchanging what currency? Do you think Singapore wants sterling for their goods or services? They want dollars, if the pound is worth less of those you have a bit of a problem.
 
You can't make a blanket statement like two adults need to work now when it used to be just one when the reality is one would be enough if you were happy with the standards of living they had back then. You don't usually have both parents working in the household today because they need to, one person can pay rent just fine you can pay rent with half of the minimum wage. On a **** house in the middle of no where and doesn't leave much money for luxuries, but that's how it was in the 70s!
 
There are a lot of other points being brought into this which really have nothing to do with Brexit or currencies or anything relevant to this topic, like fuel costs which are naturally lower in the US because they still rely on fossil fuels and charge very low taxes on them while other developed countries (not just in the EU) make them deliberately expensive because abusing those fuels is ruining the environment, but don't really have time to reply to all of it right now.
post edited by Uriel - 2018/11/30 14:29:51
doc
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/11/30 15:03:29 (permalink)
+1 (1)
Uriel
 
docYou can buy less gold today than in 1973

Quick google search, approximate numbers:
Kg of gold in 1973: 1400 GBP 
Kg of gold in 2017: 29900 GBP
UK GDP per capita in 1973: 1370 GBP
UK GPD per capita in 2017: 30000 GBP
 
What am I missing here?
 
 


ETF's , paper gold , bigger leverage , short selling, GDP being heavily massaged per capita upwards, under reporting inflation , counting all sorts of stuff in GDP that wasnt included in 1973 (like prostitution and black market activity) , 66 times more gold is now bought as a contract with a certificate than physical , remove the ETF's and leverage and the price would go to the moon and you would be able to buy around 66 times less using your figures  but more than likely even less , removal of the gold standard , gold backing allowed them to do this. 


Ill sell you a paper contract of gold if you want but ill do it for £100 per kilo, and ive got a big army if you ever try and collect it ?  Or ill put out executive order 6102 to confiscate it if you ever do want to collect? sound good ?  Did yu never wonder why gordon Brown sold our gold at its lowest price (Browns bottom) and told the market in advance ( so traders could front run it through short selling  and buy it back even cheaper , this was probably (which there is massive evidence for) to bailout a bank (GMS) to allow them to unwind there short position as they were unable to deliver , buy it with printed money .
 
Even with all that manipulation the figures are very close , but you ignoring energy prices and the rising cost of living/housing going up whilst trying to make a case against gold.
 
I am not going to make an argument for a weak or strong pound , its in constant devaluation , same as all other 3 currencies , and countries don't want the dollar , but unfortunately they have to take it since Bretton Woods agreement where the currency was backed by gold , they removed the backing so they could buy goods with monopoly money, fiat currencies will never work , central banks will never get it right , we are bankrupt , governments are wasteful engaging in keynesianism, this was the same before during and will be after brexit.  Look at whats happened to any country that has tried to trade in anything other than dollars (Iraq/Libya ) .  But weaker pound people will look at us for exports , we will look a lot kess for imports , this will create jobs in the UK and businesses will move here due to lower labour costs , but in return we get a higher cost of living ( which isnt something new)   Personally I think we need a strong pound , but the BOE disagree , they have interest rates at pretty much 0 and are engaging in QE , so if the pound is weak then that's where you need to focus , not at brexit. the trends haven't changed ,just the political decisions have caused volatility .  
 
In a normal economy things should gradually get cheaper ( more goods and services) higher supply/less demand = lower price , until its not economically viable and people will innovate somewhere else when the sector is saturated and it reaches an equilibrium.
 
also I put £1400 under my mattress in 1973 , I want to buy a kilo of gold today , im going to get 80-90% less , who has stolen my purchasing power ? oh yeh I forgot it was Brexit. 
If i bought something tangible like a barrel of oil a house or a bar of gold I would have retained my purchasing power.
 
Average house price in 1973 was £6k , so for less than 5 salaries I could have bought a house. 
average house price  now is £228 k  so that's around 8 salaries despite there being more houses and more people owning more than 1 house , this explains why you now need 2 people working .  Of course interest rates have decreased in that time which is the entire reason they have gone up, because the currency is being debased and banks/governments are stealing purchasing power. More currency in circulation = higher prices .
Uriel
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/02 19:01:45 (permalink)
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I take some of your points, on others I'm very doubtful but I feel like we've gone over much of it before and this discussion always ends up taking up too much of my time checking those facts so I'll just leave it. I still maintain the mattress analogy makes no sense, it doesn't matter that the currency loses unitary value over time if you can earn proportionally more of it, if everything costs twice as much 20 years later but people earn three times as much people are better off.
 
Even if we assume you are correct about the trend of loss of purchasing power with the pound, the fact remains that an additional depreciation of the pound on top of all of it will only make things worse. There are some very immediate short term problems with that when your country relies on imports for so many things from most of what you eat to supply chains across the industry. You're taking a very broad, idealistic and long term view of the problem and forgetting that in the short term this could mean real businesses going bankrupt and real people losing their jobs. My point about brexit, can be made about this complete revolution in the economic system that you preach - on the (very) long term it might be better, but in the mean time people need to go on with their lives. Nobody cares that the economy is more sound and stable and there's no public debt any more when they're starving in the street.
doc
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/03 01:19:26 (permalink)
+1 (1)
Uriel
I take some of your points, on others I'm very doubtful but I feel like we've gone over much of it before and this discussion always ends up taking up too much of my time checking those facts so I'll just leave it. I still maintain the mattress analogy makes no sense, it doesn't matter that the currency loses unitary value over time if you can earn proportionally more of it, if everything costs twice as much 20 years later but people earn three times as much people are better off.
 
Even if we assume you are correct about the trend of loss of purchasing power with the pound, the fact remains that an additional depreciation of the pound on top of all of it will only make things worse. There are some very immediate short term problems with that when your country relies on imports for so many things from most of what you eat to supply chains across the industry. You're taking a very broad, idealistic and long term view of the problem and forgetting that in the short term this could mean real businesses going bankrupt and real people losing their jobs. My point about brexit, can be made about this complete revolution in the economic system that you preach - on the (very) long term it might be better, but in the mean time people need to go on with their lives. Nobody cares that the economy is more sound and stable and there's no public debt any more when they're starving in the street.


Ok we agree that a weak pound is bad ( some would argue it's good , I wouldn't) again look at the BOE's inflation policy . If the EU dont do us a trade deal and the pound suffers, this will be short term pain, but we will be better off in the long run , just like any one sided relationship where your the cuck , your better off out of there .There will be equilibrium , if people in the UK are relying on subsidies from the EU then I don't see any positive argument to keep them employed , let it go bust and let them adopt to the free market and work in an area where they are adding more value than they are taking .
 
Really no idea why you can't get your head around the mattress, its devaluation quite simple   , not sure of what future earning have to do with the value of what you earned , if you built someone an extension for there house in 1973 and it came to £1400 would you be happy to be paid that money in 2018 ? or has the fiat cash lost that much value through the inflation tax that the £ isn't the same ?It's the same extension than it was in 2018 .
 

 
Even Ben Bernanke admits its inflation is a tax
 
The reason you earn more pounds nowadays is because its been debased , but it's less proportionally, then you have to look at the national debts ( taken on by governments and private banks )which are hitting the moon (literally) the US national debt would get to and from the moon and back 5 times if you stacked dollar bills on top of each other.
 
If I had a tax bill of 1400 in 1973 , do you think they would be happy with me to pay £1400 back now .
If I had a mortgage for a house for £1400 do you think they would leave me alone for 40 years and they pay it off when its a weekly wage ? Or would they insist on monthly payments with an APR above stated inflation and base rates ?
If I put the 1400 in a bank account with interest do you think I would have an account sitting there with 19k (no I wouldn't) 
 
Now if I did know this scam and bought a kilo of gold for £1400 in 1973, keep it under my mattress , hey presto, ive saved my money , yipee , now ill sell it and sh1t im down 20% because ive' been taxed on a gain even though ive not gained , I had a kilo of gold and that's what i sold , so because the banks decided to print money making my prices go up , so ive been double shafted with higher prices and now with a CGT tax because they decided to do so  , so you cant have it both ways if the government is taxing me on gains its because they are pricing it in £'s , but if I kept £1400 under my mattress it buys 90% less so if the government uses the £ as a benchmark (which in CGT they do ) then its being debased .
 
More money in circulation = higher prices , anytime i pound is printed it steals value from the other pounds , it's the entire reason that if you and i did it we would be in jail for counterfeiting . 
 
If we follow your argument ( which is flawed and incorrect) and say my goods have gone up 90% but my wage have gone up 90% as well, so it's a zero sum game , well not quite because if you look at the maths , wages have fallen behind even stated inflation let alone real inflation, I know many people who haven't had a single penny raise since 2008 but prices have gone up , we are being squeezed , then there people who are earning more now to find they have to pay more VAT, higher tax bands , higher NI, much higher proportional food costs/energy costs(much worse food quality)living standards are falling in a time where they should be improving. If I bought a Twix in 1980 it was 7p , now its 80p and half the size, same with all foods, smaller packets , more £ per gram prices.
 

 

 

 

 
To break the trend of continued depreciation isn't to stay the the EU or to join the euro , its to change the whole banking system , Brexit or remaining  will not change that one iota, to change that we would need democracy and proper reform and whilst being in the EU you're a lot further away from that than leaving.
 
If a price had doubled, people wouldn't be earning 3 times more , that is counter inflationary, if the money supply had grown enough for people to be earning 3 times more then the goods would have also grown 3 times more (supply/demand) would dictate the price but they will be paying much more than 3 times more for food/energy.
 
I think your trying to get your head around a perfect world where a government/banks can create as much money as possible and make everyone rich where prices don't change , but in reality they do, the pounds gets debased (through BOE) policy and goods go up , public sector workers get wage freezes , governments get bigger , we have more legislation , bad government policy like min wage , jobs get outsourced , unemployment goes up and benefits paid by taxes go up, if they don't tax us directly , they print the money and pay it with that (deficit spending ) and we suffer the higher prices. Stop governments running deficits and run a balanced budget , stop fractional reserve banking and you could have price stability .
 
post edited by doc - 2018/12/03 01:22:40
Trident
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/03 14:52:29 (permalink)
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May must publish the legal advice it has been given in full otherwise she is protecting the EU at the expense of the public.
 
She has no chance of getting the vote on the 11th.
 
Laughable that she wont quit if she fails to do so.
 
 
PartyBoy
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/03 17:47:57 (permalink)
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I never tire of reading your posts doc. It's like having our very own Peter Schiff
post edited by PartyBoy - 2018/12/03 17:51:07

Kaneda
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/04 08:52:42 (permalink)
teapot
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 12:20:50 (permalink)
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Anyone else have the feeling there will be another referendum before exit? Anyone else have the feeling we wont leave at all?
On The Flop
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 12:25:35 (permalink)
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I don't believe for a minute they'll be another referendum to be honest. That would probably be the most un-democratic move by any Political Party/Person in modern history, and the end of any 'faith' in the system at all.

“It ain’t all sunshine and rainbows”
 
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teapot
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 12:33:32 (permalink)
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I think they are trying to create such a mess, and they seem to be doing pretty well at it, that there will be so many calls for one that they will say it would be undemocratic not to listen.
On The Flop
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 12:39:47 (permalink)
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teapot
I think they are trying to create such a mess, and they seem to be doing pretty well at it, that there will be so many calls for one that they will say it would be undemocratic not to listen.




If it happens then that's the end of any future democratic process, forever!!. Maybe that's what they want. I've said for years we're being steered towards Totalitariaism.

“It ain’t all sunshine and rainbows”
 
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 13:04:52 (permalink)
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The greatest trick democracy ever pulled was convincing the people they have a choice.

Alt er mulig
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 14:09:25 (permalink)
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I must admit, the whole thing has got my goat now.  
 
The problem has always been, for people like me, that our country was being absorbed by a European superstate, (You know like the one that nice Mr Hitler wanted) but we were laughed at, and told that we were being silly, and that we could walk away at any time. 
 
We were dismissed by the elite types who benefit most from being in the EU as "a few nutters" eventually we managed to get a referendum. Not because our elite actually gave a toss what we think, but because if they didn't, they risked losing enough voters to UKIP to tip the balance to Labour, and thus lose the election - i.e. they let us have the referendum for their own angle, the trouble is, the believed their own lies about it only being a "few nutters"
So, the democratic choice is made, although our elite make it clear they aren't happy. 
 
They then (naturally) do nothing for a year, then trigger article 50, then do some more nothing, ...then at the last minute, too late to make any tweaks the deliver this garbage that, surely she knows, has zero chance of making it through commons. 
 
  Then, we are looked squarely in the face, and told the above proves Brexit is undeliverable??  WTF??  We are told our choice is a Brexit which isn't really Brexit, or scrapping the whole thing. 
  ...and of course this is cheerleaded by the 48% who LOST the referendum because by this reckoning , its win/win for them,  lose/lose for those who actually WON the referendum.  
 
Get that vile woman out of number 10,  Put someone in there with the balls to, at the very least work on the Canada ++ arrangement that has always been on the table. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

No, Not that Dr Z.  Please don't bother PM'ing me for 'Price Lists'  You have the wrong guy.  
doc
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/05 14:25:07 (permalink)
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PartyBoy
I never tire of reading your posts doc. It's like having our very own Peter Schiff


 
economics is something very simple that everybody knows described in a language nobody knows , I just listen read and lay it out in layman's terms , I think a lot of people listen to soundbites and repeat them without ever thinking about it, I mean people say the pound is weak , no sh1t , the BOE are actively destroying it and they do so without knowing anything about the fundamentals , history , interest rates , boe policy , stimulus (devaluation). If they wanted a strong pound they would stop printing and raise rates, the reason we have a weak pound is because we are bankrupt , deficit spending and printing money to pay the debts in devalued pounds .  
teapot
I think they are trying to create such a mess, and they seem to be doing pretty well at it, that there will be so many calls for one that they will say it would be undemocratic not to listen.



I think this will happen , I do not think there is any way democracy will prevail , if we do leave they will come up with such a sh1tty deal and cripple the public that a second referendum will be ran shortly after and people will be bullied into voting back in . Either some catastrophic event will come up that will be a game changer (banking crisis, food shortage etc) We are not being led by people who want to leave , if we had gone along with any of May's plans that is not actually leaving . We need to do no deal and make it clear that the EU do not want a trade deal , they want a political union where they have full control , that's what we voted to be away from . People seem happy to not have democracy and be prisoners as long as they get treated relatively well.
 
 
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/06 10:13:06 (permalink)
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teapot
 Anyone else have the feeling we wont leave at all?




I said this very thing shortly after the result.

Dav
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/06 10:28:55 (permalink)
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Please some see the truth of the EU. Since Heaths government lied to the country in 1973 proven by the recent release of document fco 30/1048 the UK have blindly been taken into what DrZ has mentioned.

I always believed that the incompetent May was left in to completely take the rap for a ballsed up Brexit to force another referendum.

All hail Hydra erm I mean the EU lol.
Rasputin
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/07 11:37:28 (permalink)
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CitizenKane
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/07 15:23:27 (permalink)
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Playing devil’s advocate here as an impartial outsider:

I can understand why a lot of people would be annoyed (to put it mildly) with another referendum. However, if the argument against another referendum is that we must respect the democratic will of the people, then what exactly is the problem with holding another one? If the will of the people continues to be to leave, then that will be demonstrated by another referendum, no?

"Be adequate"
 
PartyBoy
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Re: Brexit media fearmongering , In/Out 2018/12/07 16:34:24 (permalink)
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If that were the case then there would be referenda ad infintum with each utterly meaningless and inconsequential

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