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Monty Hall problem - probability question

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paulthebuilder
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2009/07/26 22:56:29 (permalink)
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Monty Hall problem - probability question

This is a cracker, this (looked it up as it's part of the storyline behind the film "21", which I want to watch)...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
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    1ManRiot
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/26 23:01:25 (permalink)
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    Good stuff.

    Always cracks me up on Deal Or No Deal when they go on about "feeling it" and all that crap.  It's all about probability and dealing at the right point.  No skill involved- just see what you land on and go with it!

    Unaffiliated. 
    #2
    paulthebuilder
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/26 23:10:32 (permalink)
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    john_cappa
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/26 23:18:38 (permalink)
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    you have got to account for variable change

    Super film 21 is!! damn i love las vegas!!!!! 8 weeks away!!
    #4
    Dan Nukem
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/26 23:24:51 (permalink)
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    Righty, you're turning into John Forbes Nash. :)

    When I left, you could make a dog taking a poo sound funny.
    Now you would probably try to calculate the velocity at which the dog poops based on a variation in Earth Gravity.

    Has wifey suggested anything about "tabletki" to you mate?  ;)
    #5
    paulthebuilder
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/26 23:33:38 (permalink)
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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.
    Didn't know who he was, ashamed to say.

    Nyet tabletki, spasibo - I enjoy being mentally deprived.
    #6
    Paracelsus
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/26 23:50:06 (permalink)
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    The film is ****, just read the book mate. 'Bringing down the house' I think it's called.
    #7
    paulthebuilder
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:19:39 (permalink)
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    It has been slated quite a bit, unfortunately.

    But it's a nice little visualisation of something I have a growing interest in.
    #8
    john_cappa
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:21:32 (permalink)
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    rightyho

    It has been slated quite a bit, unfortunately.

    But it's a nice little visualisation of something I have a growing interest in.


    Its very inaccurate from what ive read. Some good youtube videos pointing out the intenttional mistakes thay made in order to make it more interesting.
     
    I still love it though!
    #9
    paulthebuilder
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:26:00 (permalink)
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    End of the day, it's a system for improving the odds but there are still odds against you, so a run of negative outcomes can still do your stake in even if you know all the advantages.

    Still, it's very interesting.
    #10
    john_cappa
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:47:29 (permalink)
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    rightyho

    End of the day, it's a system for improving the odds but there are still odds against you, so a run of negative outcomes can still do your stake in even if you know all the advantages.

    Still, it's very interesting.


    the odds are with you by 1 % or something small like that assuming you better perfectly using the developed system.
     
    Have you watched the documentry about the actual MIT team, its really good. Link to the first one below, the rest of the parts link off it then
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znfgH1QmN5o
    #11
    paulthebuilder
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:50:15 (permalink)
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    Thanks for the link mate.
    The odds improve by 3% afaik.

    Doesn't sound much better than betting on red or black at the roulette wheel tbh.

    ACTUALLY, EDIT THAT - IT'S MUCH BETTER ODDS.
    post edited by rightyho - 2009/07/27 01:13:36
    #12
    paulthebuilder
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:51:36 (permalink)
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    This obviously only covers the basics of just the card-counting system but it's interesting.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting
    #13
    john_cappa
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 00:55:44 (permalink)
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    rightyho

    Thanks for the link mate.
    The odds improve by 3% afaik.

    Doesn't sound much better than betting on red or black at the roulette wheel tbh.


    yeah i thnk they go from being 1.5% against you to being 1-2% in your favour!so around 3% increase. Its a small advantage and i imagine it takes the fun out of the game totally.
    #14
    sillynarbie
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 13:11:53 (permalink)
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    26

    Good stuff.

    Always cracks me up on Deal Or No Deal when they go on about "feeling it" and all that crap.  It's all about probability and dealing at the right point.  No skill involved- just see what you land on and go with it!


    Deal or no deal is slightly different because there is no prior knowledge from anyone involved, so there is less "conditioning" than in the monty hall problem. As you say though it's all luck, if people had a better understanding of the probabilities then they'd understand the show much more, for example why the banker makes seemingly "harsh" offers to them at certain stages of the game.
    #15
    BigPete
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 13:27:32 (permalink)
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    I've always wondered why on Deal or No Deal, they don't realise the banker won't want the programme to finish after 10 minutes!  Of course his offers are going to be rubbish early on!

    They do seem to get a particularly dumb type of contestant for that show, but fair play to them they are the ones walking away with a bit of money , not me.
    #16
    sillynarbie
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 13:28:10 (permalink)
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    john_cappa

    rightyho

    Thanks for the link mate.
    The odds improve by 3% afaik.

    Doesn't sound much better than betting on red or black at the roulette wheel tbh.

    yeah i thnk they go from being 1.5% against you to being 1-2% in your favour!so around 3% increase. Its a small advantage and i imagine it takes the fun out of the game totally.

     
    Of course it relies on the property of the central limit theorem, and the eventual convergence of the odds.
     
    Some problems:
     
    1) you need very very deep pockets (who knows how long you will go before you make get a win and how big that win will be?)
     
    2) you need to be very skilled, and operate the system to perfection, as someone has already alluded too.
     
    3) You'll get chucked out anyway!

    #17
    john_cappa
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 13:33:39 (permalink)
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    sillynarbie

    john_cappa

    rightyho

    Thanks for the link mate.
    The odds improve by 3% afaik.

    Doesn't sound much better than betting on red or black at the roulette wheel tbh.

    yeah i thnk they go from being 1.5% against you to being 1-2% in your favour!so around 3% increase. Its a small advantage and i imagine it takes the fun out of the game totally.

     
    Of course it relies on the property of the central limit theorem, and the eventual convergence of the odds.
     
    Some problems:
     
    1) you need very very deep pockets (who knows how long you will go before you make get a win and how big that win will be?)
     
    2) you need to be very skilled, and operate the system to perfection, as someone has already alluded too. 
     
    3) You'll get chucked out anyway!

    Its not illegal though is it? just the casinos dont like you turning the tables basically
    #18
    BigPete
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 13:34:53 (permalink)
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    To be honest I don't think you need to be that skilled, it's quite easy to learn some basic card counting methods on Blackjack.  Obviously you need to be good at it, but I think most people could do it with enough practice.

    If you don't play it 100% accurately you are still going to have a margin on the house.

    And experienced card counters will use their bank carefully, the big advantage is that they bet higher when they believe the odds are in their favour.  When you combine that with the positive expectation that can generate huge profits.

    Of course the more obvious you make it the quicker the casino is going to spot it.  So you will get chucked out faster the better you play!

    #19
    BigPete
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    Re:Monty Hall problem - probability question 2009/07/27 13:37:10 (permalink)
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    john_cappa

    [Its not illegal though is it? just the casinos dont like you turning the tables basically


    Not illegal, but you are right, Casinos don't want a long term 'winner'.
     
    Kind of ruins their business plan lol
    #20
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